| Abstract: |
| The release of carbon into the atmosphere from forest conversion and exploitation is estimated to be 18% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and thus a significant contributor to the increase of atmosphere CO2 (and other greenhouse gas) concentrations that is linked to global climate change. From Indonesia only, if the recent estimates of total emissions of 3 Giga ton per year are true, per capita emissions are twice that in France and 30% above those in the UK or Germany.
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol supports some forms of afforestation and reforestation, but no projects have been approved for Indonesia; it excludes activities that protect carbon stocks and forms of 'avoided deforestation'. Depending on the scope for REDD, there probably is a large potential in Indonesia to reduce emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU) and to generate both local ad global benefits.
Before the institutional challenges of REDD mechanisms are tackled, we need to know the potential cost effectiveness; if current emissions would lead to large economic benefits, emission reduction would be difficult, if not, incentive systems would be feasible. Abatement costs reflect the opportunity cost of activities that reduce emissions and have been analyzed for the energy sector, but not yet for AFOLU emissions in tropical forest margins. This study present the first approximation to the abatement costs for AFOLU.
A set of case studies covering three Indonesian provinces: East Kalimantan, Jambi, Lampung. They represent the gradient of forest transition stages as follows: East Kalimantan in the early to medium stage of forest degradation, Lampung the most advanced degradation stage, and Jambi is in between. The study period is from 1990 to 2005. Land use/cover maps were interpreted from Landsat TM and ETM imageries using a hierarchical classification technique. Ground-truth data were compiled from previous studies with more than 4000 points were used to assist the classification. More than 2000 plot level C-stock measurements were collected in previous studies, with some additional secondary data. The economic analysis was based on the Policy Analysis Matrix approach and used data and expertise accumulated over 10 years.
The three provinces jointly covered 16.2 % of the land area of Indonesia, and ranged in forest cover from 14% to 85% in 1990 and from 8% to 79% in 2005, while the average for the country was 55% and 36%, respectively. Patterns of the land use/cover changes varied among the three provinces. East Kalimantan was dominated by logging from natural forest, while in Jambi forest (undisturbed and logged-over forest) conversion to perennial crop of high economic value, mostly oil palm and rubber, dominated. Forest opening and conversion for agricultural purposes and settlements are associated with transmigration. Lampung has very little forest left, mostly in protected areas; illegal logging, often followed by coffee planting, within the heart of the national park and the border dominated CO2 emissions here.
Total emissions for the 3 provinces, of 400 Mega ton CO2-eq/year from 16 % of the land area support the high estimate (3 Giga ton) for Indonesia as a while and its 3rd rank as a global emitter. A considerable part of the emissions (excluding
emissions from peatland) was linked to negative and low economic gain (< 1 $/t CO2-eq), i.e., 13.7%, 19.6% and 6.2 % respectively from East Kalimantan, Jambi and Lampung; the largest share was associated with economic gain less than 5 $/t CO2-eq emitted. A fraction of 7.7%, 36.4% and 17.8% of the emissions from the three provinces was linked with 'real' economic gains (>5 $/t CO2-eq). The lower end of abatement cost is mostly due to imperata grassland taking over the degraded forest area, perhaps due to fire, irresponsible logging, or abandonment of failed timber or oil palm plantation after logging. In East Kalimantan a large area is associated with these changes. In Jambi, with 14% of its area on peatland, the total annual emission per ha is almost five times larger if we include emissions from peat; most emissions from peatland bring less than 5 $/t CO2-eq in economic returns.
Comparing the periods of 1990 to 2000, and 2000 to 2005, we found different trend among the three provinces. East Kalimantan recently emitted twice as much CO2-eq/ha/y as in the earlier period, Jambi recently emitted 75% from the earlier annual rate and Lampung emitted similar amounts in both periods. Of emissions from peatland is included, Jambi's recent emission was reduced to one fifth of the earlier period, Most of the peatland emissions in Jambi in the earlier period were due to conversion to oil palm plantations.
There is ample opportunity for global co-investment in land use types that reduce emissions and provide sustainable benefits to the local economy. For the three provinces alone, 376 Mt CO2-eq emissions per year can be abated with a cost of up to 5$ per ton; this leaves room for transaction costs and real benefits for all given recent prices of CO2 emissions reduction certificates at 23 €/t CO2-eq. However, effective AFOLU emission reduction in Indonesia will require clarity of land and tree rights, transparency of forest management integrated with rural development and spatial planning. |
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