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Paper
PP0319-12
TitleHuman decision making for empirical agent-based models: construction and validation
AuthorGrace B.Villamor, Meine van Noordwijk, Klaus G. Troitzsch and Paul L.G. Vlek
EditorR. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, S. Lange and D. Bankamp
Year2012
Parent TitleProceedings of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)
City of PublicationLeipzig, Germany
Pages1-8
Call NumberPP0319-12
Keywordsland-use decision making, agent-based/multi-agent simulation models, empirical validation
Abstract:
Results from agent-based or multi-agent simulation (AB/MAS) modelling can provide relevant information for policy makers, scientists and stakeholders about the boundary conditions of rural development and the uncertainties involved in land-use/cover change (LUCC). However, the process of model validation that can build trust in the outcomes for new parameter conditions and in future scenarios is not a trivial problem. Apparently, no common measure of the degree of confounding between parameterization and validation data sets exists. The current lack of success and the effort necessary for validating the models can be traced to the weak theoretical representation of human decision making in current models. Thus, this paper reviews various ways to represent land-use decision making using AB/MAS models. It briefly describes process-based decision making as an alternative approach to address the problem of weak theoretical representation of human decision making, and presents a case study of an agent decision-making model applying an empirical validation technique.
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