| Abstract: |
Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have been widely recognized as an innovative
management approach to address both environment conservation and human welfare
while serving as a policy instrument to deal with the ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs
resulting from land-use/ cover change (LUCC). However, there is no solid
understanding of how PES could affect the synergies and trade-offs among ES.
This research focuses on the LUCC and its inherent ES trade-offs in the
context of social-ecological systems (SES) that incorporates key feedbacks and
processes, and explores the possible impacts of management regimes, i.e., PES schemes
(e.g., eco-certification and reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation
(REDD)). To address the complexity of this research, a multi-agent simulation (MAS)
model (LB-LUDAS - Lubuk Beringin - Land Use DynAmics Simulator) was applied in
which process-based decision-making sub-models were incorporated in the decisionmaking mechanism of agents. The model was developed to explore policy scenarios by
quantifying the potential ES trade-offs resulting from the agents’ land-use choices and
preferences. It was first implemented for the rubber agroforest landscape in Jambi
Province (Sumatra), Indonesia. Species richness, carbon sequestration, opportunity
costs, and decision processes such as PES adoption and future land-use preferences submodels were incorporated to capture as much as possible the real SES of a rubber
agroforest landscape. Three scenarios were simulated over a 20-year period, namely the
PES scenario, the scenario land-use preference if supported by financial
assistance/subsidies (SUB), and the current trend as the baseline scenario.
From the simulations, the key findings show that there was a minimal landcover change under the PES scenario, where an estimated 22% of the species richness in
rubber agroforests could be conserved and 97% of the carbon emissions reduced
compared to the baseline scenario. For the SUB scenario, an estimated 6% of the
species richness could be conserved and 47% of the carbon emissions reduced. With
regard to livelihoods, only under the PES scenario was wealth inequality reduced up to
50%. Regarding the return for land investment, the profitability of a land-use type
depends considerably on each scenario; however, rubber agroforests would be highly
profitable (20%) if a price premium were to be implemented under an eco-certification
scheme. The main conclusions of this study are firstly, that PES schemes for rubber
agroforests could offer synergies among carbon emission reduction, biodiversity and
livelihoods, thus reducing the trade-offs resulting from possible land-use/cover change,
and secondly that the LB-LUDAS model as an integrated and MAS model is a useful
tool to capture the ES trade-offs as an emergent property of the dynamic socialecological systems at the same time serving as a negotiation-support system tool to
support the design of land-use policies.
The use of process-based decision making in the LB-LUDAS model is
recommended in order to incorporate intended decisions of agents in various situations.
In this way, the triggers, options and temporal and spatial aspects of agents’ reactions
are captured in a relatively realistic way. |
|
