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| Article Title | Analyzing the drivers of tree planting in Yunnan, China, with Bayesian networks | | Author | Jens Frayer, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller, Darla K. Munroe and Xu Jianchu | | Year | 2014 | | Journal Title | Land Use Policy | | Institution | Elsevier Ltd | | Volume | 36 | | Pages | 248– 258 | | Call Number | JA0555-14 | | Keywords | Forest transition, SLCP, Afforestation, Land use change, Bayesian belief network, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Strict enforcement of forest protection and massive afforestation campaigns have contributed to a significant
increase in China’s forest cover during the last 20 years. At the same time, demographic changes in
rural areas due to changes in reproduction patterns and the emigration of younger population segments
have affected land-use strategies. We identified proximate causes and underlying drivers that influence
the decisions of farm households to plant trees on former cropland with Bayesian networks (BNs). BNs
allow the incorporation of causal relationships in data analysis and can combine qualitative stakeholder
knowledge with quantitative data. We defined the structure of the network with expert knowledge and
in-depth discussions with land users. The network was calibrated and validated with data from a survey
of 509 rural households in two upland areas of Yunnan Province in Southwest China. The results substantiate
the influence of land endowments, labor availability and forest policies for switching from cropland
to tree planting. State forest policies have constituted the main underlying driver to the forest transition
in the past, but private afforestation activities increasingly dominate the expansion of tree cover. Farmers
plant trees on private incentives mainly to cash in on the improved economic opportunities provided by
tree crops, but tree planting also constitutes an important strategy to adjust to growing labor scarcities. |
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