| Abstract: |
| Bac Kan, northeast Vietnam, is a poor province with a relatively high forest cover rate. The province is at the later stage of forest transition, with increasing forest cover. However, quality of the forests, thus emissions reduction service that they can deliver, is still a concern, particularly when it comes to PES and REDD+ discussions. With overlapping issues of conflicting rights between local livelihoods and top-down forest conservation , unsustainable land use practices and unclear forest land tenure, our question is whether a REDD+ or REALU (Reducing emissions from all land uses) mechanism can help in reducing conflict between economic development and forest conservation in Bac Kan province? We have found that deforestation and reforestation are happening in parallel at different parts of the landscape and are result of mixed causes. Government’s forestry policies appeared to be the key drivers of land use change, particularly reforestation programs (661 and 147). In terms of carbon stock, the landscape has been a net carbon sequestration landscape since 2005, and the trend is expected to continue in the future. Among 5 future land use dynamic scenarios, REALU in a better option if payments offered by the global REDD market are added to the incentives already proposed. However, the province’ target of 84% forest cover and 6% agricultural land by 2020 suggests that significant economic tradeoffs may make local people poorer than they currently are. The sustainability of a REALU mechanism is faced with uncertainty, not only in terms of sustained financing, but also in terms of addressing widening economic tradeoffs and not further harming the poor. We therefore proposed the elements of a sustainable and adaptable REALU mechanism: (i) bundling environmental services and payments; (ii) linking the mechanism with rural development support programs; (iii) national guidance and support for building the capacity of local implementers; and (iv) removing national legal/regulatory and technical barriers. |
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